starfall - Today at 4:48 PMare you hackerExpect us - Today ...

Next halving to occur April 17th, 2016.

At least that's my best guess, based on the difficulty trends. It was originally anticipated at the end of 2016, but we've already gained 3 months, thanks to the massive difficulty gains. By the end of 2013 we should be 4 months ahead, but that's an unsustainable pace, representing block generation that is 33% faster than the "normal" 10 minute interval. I'm betting we'll gain another 4 1/2 months over the next 140,000 blocks, then level off.
Any other guesses on the date? I'll donate 1 BTC to the closest guess! Ties will be split. If there's a way to reliably escrow the funds for that long, I'm happy to do so...otherwise you'll just have to take your chances that I'll still be around to honor the contest.
Betting closes at midnight on Oct 24th.
Edit: Thanks for everyone's inputs! The thread didn't get much attention, but it will still be fun to look back at this a few years from now, especially if 1 BTC is worth $10,000+.
MrBubbles007: December 29th 2015
16rjg4: January 30, 2016
teachingroland: Feb 13, 2016
codyave: February 14, 2016
filenotfounderror: February 26th, 2016
ribgriller: march 15 2016
Userbased: April 1, 2016
PeachesOrPears: April 16th, 2016
i_am_bitcoin: April 17, 2016
JeanBono: April 18, 2016
SpaceFloow: May 14, 2016
some2else1: May 17, 2016
lowstrife: May 24, 2016
costermonger: June 15, 2016
Fakje: June 17th, 2016
Beremat: June 29th, 2016
starfall-invoker: July 26, 2016
Silfax: August 1, 2016
poolbath1: August 5, 2016 4:20pm
QuasiSteve: Sept 30th, 2016
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